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Population Projections & Demographics

Population Projections & Demographics

Urban areas by nature are in continuous evolution, and undergo cyclical periods of natural growth, decline and revitalization over the long-term. Recognizing trends is a key element in ensuring the efficient long-term allocation of resources, and a sound principle of land use planning. 
 
Population projections inform long-range planning and infrastructure investment by indicating the scope and scale of population change. Projections provide explainable and defensible guesses about what might happen given a set of assumptions based on past, current and future trends. The County of Lambton is required to prepare population projections for all lower tier municipalities within the County including the City of Sarnia.  The last comprehensive population projections for the County were prepared in 1996.
 
In September 2010, County Council approved population projections to the year 2031.  The County of Lambton Population Summary Trends and Projections 2006 - 2031 Report includes five potential growth scenarios based on a weighted average of past trends.  For each scenario, long-term gradual population decline was identified that is consistent with trends across rural Ontario and reflect declining birth rates, a continuing exodus of young adults, an increasingly aged population, and limited immigration rates.  The ‘Weighted’ scenario prioritizes the 2001-2006 age-specific growth rates and was selected as the most likely to occur over the 20 year planning horizon.  A population of 67,551 is anticipated for 2016.  A 2031 population of 59,173 has been allocated for the City of Sarnia, a decline of 17.1% from the 2006 census.  These projections are reviewed every five years.
 
The City and County are working with numerous stakeholders to address these challenges through such collaborations as the Local Immigration Partnership (LIP) and the Sarnia Lambton Workforce Development Board (SLWDB).  To achieve long-term success, these initiatives to retain and attract a skilled and diverse workforce must be coupled with strategies that support the continued development of a desirable, efficient, attractive City.
 
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Last Modified: Monday, November 21, 2011 9:59 AM